В поисках энергии. Ресурсные войны, новые технологии и будущее энергетики - Дэниел Ергин

23. Newsweek, April 28, 1975; “What Is Happening to Our Climate,” National Geographic, November 1976, Time magazine, August 19, 1976.

24. R. P. Turco, O. B. Toon, T. P. Ackerman, J. B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan, “Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions,” Science 222, no. 4630 (1983), pp. 1283–92.

25. Hart and Victor, “Scientific Elites,” pp. 657–61 (“advertant”); Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, p. 5 (Kennedy); Martin Campbell-Kelly and William Aspray, Computer: A History of the Information Machine (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2004), p. 79 (“considerable temerity”).

26. Norman Macrae, John von Neumann: The Scientific Genius Who Pioneered the Modern Computer, Game Theory, Nuclear Deterrence, and Much More (American Mathematical Society, 2008), pp. 5, 248 (“last words”).

27. Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 52, 250, 266, 325, 369; Stanislaw M. Ulam, Adventures of a Mathematician (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), pp. 4, 203, 245.

28. Campbell-Kelly and Aspray, Computer, pp. 3–4 (“computers”); Macrae, John von Neumann, p. 234 (“modern mathematical modeling”).

29. Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 298, 302 (“phenomena”).

30. Spencer Weart, “Government: The View from Washington, DC,” The Discovery of Global Warming, at http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Govt.htm (“warfare”); Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 298, 316 (“jiggle,” “weather predictions”); New York Times, February 9, 1957 (“electronic brain”).

31. 31. Norman Phillips, “Jule Charney, 1917–1981,” Annals of the History of Computing 3, no. 4 (1981), pp. 318–19; Norman Phillips, “Jule Charney’s Influence on Meteorology,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 63, no. 5 (1982), pp. 492–98; John M. Lewis, “Smagorinsky’s GFDL: Building the Team,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89, no. 9 (2008), pp. 1339–53; Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 316–20.

32. 32. “‘Suki’ Manabe: Pioneer of Climate Modeling,” IPRC Climate 5, no. 2 (2005), pp. 11–15; Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald, “Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere witha Given Distribution of Relative Humidity,” Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 24, no. 3 (1967), pp. 241–59; Spencer Weart, “General Circulation Models of Climate,” The Discovery of Global Warming, at http://www.aip.org/history/climate/GCM.htm.

33. 33. Interview with Fred Krupp.

34. 34. Macrae, John von Neumann, p. 3245–326 (most prominent meteorologist); James G. Speth, Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2005), p. 3; interview with Rafe Pomerance; Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, July 23–27, 1979, to the Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council (Washington, D. C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1979) (“incontrovertible evidence”).

35. 35. “Effects of Carbon Dioxide Buildup in the Atmosphere,” Hearing, U. S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, April 3, 1980.

36. 36. George M. Woodwell, Gordon J. MacDonald, Roger Revelle, and Charles Keeling, “The Carbon Dioxide Report,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 35, no. 8 (1979), pp. 56–57.

37. 37. Speth, Red Sky at Morning, pp. 2–9.

38. 38. Jonathan Overpeck, “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries,” Science 278, no. 5341 (1997).

39. 39. Walter Munk, “Tribute to Roger Revelle and His Contributions to Studies of Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change,” Colloquium on Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change, National Academy of Sciences, Irvine, CA, November 13–15, 1995 (“exile”); Revelle Oral History.

40. 40. Roger R. Revelle, Lecture Notes, Mc6 Box 55, Folder “Natural Sciences 118,” Scripps Institution of Oceanography Archives.

41. 41. Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth (New York: Rodale Books, 2006), p. 10; Al Gore, Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit (New York: Rodale Books, 2006), p. 5 (“rest of my life”); Hecht and Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change,” p. 381 (“deeply disturbed”).

Глава 22. Дорога до Рио

1. Mathew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics (London: Routledge, 1996), p. 32; interview with Robert Stavins, New York Times, June 26, 1988 (“For the Midwest”).

2. Interviews with Tim Wirth and David Harwood; Tim Wirth interview, Frontline, PBS.

3. The New York Times, June 23, 1988; James Hansen interview, Frontline, PBS; James Hansen, testimony, U. S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, June 23, 1988.

4. “‘Suki’ Manabe: Pioneer of Climate Modeling,” IPRC Climate 5, no. 2 (2005), p. 14 (“They weren’t too impressed”); interview with Tim Wirth (“huge event”); New York Times, August 23, 1988 (“almost overnight”).

5. Roger R. Revelle to Mancur Olson, September 2, 1988, Mc A6, Box 19, Folder “Correspondence August 1988,” Revelle papers.

6. Spencer Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2003), p. 151 (Villach); Mohamed T. El-Ashry, “Climate Change, Clean Energy, and U. S. Leadership,” AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellows Programs, 30th Anniversary Symposium, May 13, 2004.

7. Richard Elliott Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998).

8. Richard Kerr, “Hansen vs. the World on the Greenhouse Threat,” Science 244, no. 4908 (1989), pp. 1041–43.

9. Tim Wirth to Roger R. Revelle, July 15, 1988, Roger R. Revelle to Tim Wirth, July 18, 1988, Roger R. Revelle to Jim Bates, July 14, 1988, Mc A6, Box 19, Folder “Correspondence July 1988,” Revelle papers.

10. James E. Hansen, Wei-Chyung, and Andrew A. Lacis, “Mount Agung Eruption Provides a Test of Global Climactic Perturbation,” Science 199, no. 4333 (1978), pp. 1065–68 (“simultaneous studies”); Audubon, November – December 1999 (“captivated,” “best proof”); James Hansen, “Climate Threat to the Planet: Implications for Energy Policy and Intergenerational Justice,” Jacob Bjerknes Lecture, American Geophysical Union, December 17, 2008 (“Venus Syndrome”).

11. Andrew Revkin, “Endless Summer: Living with the Greenhouse Effect,” Discover, October 1988.

12. George H. W. Bush, press release, September 1, 1988, George Bush Presidential Library; The New York Times, September 2, 1988 (“White House effect”); Alan D. Hecht and Dennis Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change: A Scientific and Policy History,” Climactic Change 29 (1995), p. 383.

13. Time, August 20, 1923, June 11, 1934, June 19, 1939, August 19, 1955.

14. Sports Illustrated, March13, 1989; Time, August 6, 1934 (“U. S. Sahara”); New York Times, September 4, 1988 (“packing our bags”); Irving M. Mintzer and J. A. Leonard, “Visions of a Changing World,” in Negotiating Climate Change: The Inside Story of the Rio Convention, eds. Irving M. Mintzer and J. A. Leonard (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 52 (“science fiction”).

15. Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World’s Economy (New York: Touchstone, 2002), pp. 95–96.

16. Margaret Thatcher, The Downing Street Years (London: HarperCollins, 1993), pp. 640–41; Margaret Thatcher, speech to the Royal Society, September 27, 1988.

17. Weart, The Discovery of Climate Change, p. 12 (“indispensable man”); Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change: The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), p. 23 (“As chairman”); interview with Danel Esty.

18. Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, pp. 48–49, 58; James Baker, speech, in Department of State Bulletin, April 1989.

19. Interview with Daniel Esty.

20. Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, p. 63.

21. W. K. Reilly, Breakdown on the Road from Rio: Reform, Reaction, and Distraction Compete in the Cause of the International Environment, 1993–94, Arthur and Frank Payne Lecture, Stanford University (“bet your economy”); interview with William Reilly (“dined out”); George Will, Washington Post, May 31, 1992 (“red roots”).

22. Interview with John Sununu; Los Angeles Times, March2, 1990 (“nuclear power fights”).

23. Cable from American Embassy in Bonn to White House, March13, 1992, Folder 45045–020, George H. W. Bush Presidential Library; New York Times, May 9, 1989; New York Times, March 24, 1992.

24. George H. W. Bush, press conference, April 10, 1992.

25. The New York Times, June 13, 1992 (“lone holdout”).

26. The New York Times, June 14, 1992 (“second to none,” “Darth Vader”); interview with William Reilly.

27. Irving M. Mintzer and J. Amber Leonard, eds., Negotiating Climate Change: The Inside Story of the Rio Convention (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), ch. 1, appendix (“dangerous anthropogenic interference”).

28. Interview with William Reilly.

Глава 23. Создание рынка

1. Michael Sandel, “It’s Immoral to Buy the Right to Pollute,” op-ed, New York Times, December 17, 1997; interview with Fred Krupp.

2. Ronald Coase autobiography, Nobel Prize Web site (“underrate your abilities”).

3. Ronald Coase, “The Problem of Social Cost,” Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 3, (1960), pp. 1–44 (“externalities”).

4. John H. Dales, Pollution, Property & Prices: An Essay in Policy-making and Economics (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1968), ch. 6; David Montgomery, “Markets in Licenses and Efficient Pollution Control Programs,” Journal of Economic Theory 5, no. 3 (1972), pp. 395–418.

5. Richard Nixon, “Message to the Congress,” August 10, 1970 (“war on pollution”); Robert W. Hahn, “Economic Prescriptions for Environmental Problems: How the Patient Followed the Doctor’s Orders,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 3, no. 2 (1989), pp. 97–98.