В поисках энергии. Ресурсные войны, новые технологии и будущее энергетики - Дэниел Ергин

2. Peter Jackson, Jonathan Craig, Leta Smith, Samia Razak, and Simon Wardell, “Peak Oil Postponed Again: Liquids Production Capacity to 2030,” IHS CERA, 2010.

3. John S. Ezell, Innovations in Energy: The Story of Kerr-McGee (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1979), pp. 152–69.

4. Tyler Priest, The Off shore Imperative: Shell’s Search for Petroleum in Postwar America (College Station: Texas A& M Press, 2007), p. 245.

5. James Burkhard, Pete Stark, and Leta Smith, “Oil Well Blowout and the Future of Deepwater E& P,” IHS CERA, 2010. In the late 1970s, deepwater was considered anything over six hundred feet. Today two thousand feet is a customary definition for the point at which deepwater begins.

6. New York Times, December 26, 2010, May 7, 2010, September 7, 2010, May 28, 2010; Wall Street Journal, May 27, 2010; BP, Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report, September 8, 2010; National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Off shore Drilling, Deep Water: The Gulf Oil Disaster and the Future of Off shore Drilling, January 2011. Det Norske Veritas, Forensic Examination of Deepwater Horizon Blowout Preventer, final report, Volume 1, March20, 2011.

7. Tony Hayward, speech, Cambridge Union Society, November 10, 2010 (“could not happen”).

8. U. S. Department of Interior, “Increased Safety Measures for Energy Development on the Outer Continental Shelf,” May 27, 2010, p. 6.

9. National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, “Stopping the Spill: The Five-Month Effort to Kill the Macondo Well,” Staff Working Paper, number 6; Bloomberg, September 19, 2010.

10. Federal Interagency Solutions Group, Oil Budget Calculation: Deepwater Horizon; November 2010.

11. Terry Hazen et al., “Deep Sea Oil Plume Enriches Oil-Degrading Bacteria,” Science 330, no. 6001 (2010), pp. 204–8; New York Times, September 20, 2010.

12. Wall Street Journal, January 7, 2011.

13. Barack Obama, speech, Andrews Air Force Base, March31, 2010.

14. BP America, Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report, pp. 11, 32.

15. National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, Deepwater: The Gulf Oil Disaster and the Future of Off shore Drilling, ch. 4.

16. IHS Global Insight, The Economic Impact of the Gulf of Mexico Offshore Oil and Natural Industry and the Role of the Independents, July 21, 2010, pp. 9–11.

17. Interview with José Sergio Gabriellide Azevedo (“had to go off shore”); Upstream Online, May 4, 2009 (Lula).

18. U. S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy, “Overview on Global Energy Security Issues,” April 8, 2003.

19. IHS CERA, The Role of Canadian Oil Sands in US Oil Supply, Canadian Oil Sands Dialogue, April 2010.

20. Paul Chatsko, Developing Alberta’s Oil Sands: From Karl Clark to Kyoto (Calgary: University of Calgary Press, 2004), pp. 97–98 (“promising way”); Arthur M. Johnson, The Challenge of Change: The Sun Oil Company 1945–1977 (Columbus: Ohio State University, 1983), p. 131 (“enamored”); Peter McKenzie Brown, Gordon Jaremko and David Finch, The Great Oil Age (Calgary: Detselig, 1993), p. 75 (“important role”).

21. Chatsko, Developing Alberta’s Oil Sands, p. 218 (“single most important”); IHS CERA, Oil Sands Technology: Past, Present, and Future, Canadian Oil Sands Energy Dialogue, January 2011.

22. Energy Resources Conservation Board, “ERCB Conditionally Approves Tailings Plan for Shell Muskeg River Project,” press release, September 20, 2010.

23. Interview (“addiction”).

24. IHS CERA, Oil Sands, Greenhouse Gases, and US Oil Supply: Getting the Numbers Right, Canadian Oil Sands Dialogue, September 2010.

25. U. S. Geological Service Survey, “An Estimate of Recoverable Oil Resources of the Orinoco Oil Belt,” October 2009; Associated Press, May 2, 2007 (“bosses made us come”); Reuters, May 2, 2007; Houston Chronicle, May 5, 2007 (“our bosses”); EFE news service, May 1, 2007; Financial Times, May 1, 2007.

26. Guy Elliott Mitchell, “Billions of Barrels Locked Up in Rocks,” National Geographic, February 1918, p. 201; Washington Post, June 16, 1979 (“doing without”).

27. Leta Smith, Sang-Won Kim, Pete Stark, and Rick Chamberlain, “The Shale Gale Goes Oily,” IHS CERA, 2011.

28. Interview with John Hess.

29. Peter Jackson, Jonathan Craig, Leta Smith, Samia Razak, and Simon Wardell, “‘Peak Oil’ Postponed Again: Liquids Production Capacity to 2030,” IHS CERA, 2010.

Глава 13. Энергетическая безопасность

1. Rondo Cameron and Larry Neal, A Concise Economic History of the World (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 118.

2. Randolph S. Churchill, Winston Churchill, vol. 2, Young Statesman, 1901–1904 (London: Heinemann, 1968), p. 529; Winston S. Churchill, The World Crisis, vol. 1 (New York: Scribners, 1928), pp. 130–36 (“navel supremcy”); Winston S. Churchill, Churchill, vol. 2, Companion Volume, part 3, 1926–27 (“less size”).

3. John DeNovo, “Petroleum and the United States Navy Before World War I,” The Mississippi Valley Historical Review 41, no. 4, March1955, pp. 641–56; Aurthur A. Hardinge, A Diplomatist in the East (London: Jonathan Cape, 1928), p. 280 (“knocked down”); Parliamentary Debates, Commons, July 17, 1913, pp. 1474–77 (“variety”).

4. Interview with Richard Fairbanks.

5. James Woolsey.

6. Robert J. Lieber, The Oil Decade: Conflict and Cooperation in the West (New York: Praeger, 1983), p. 19.

7. 106th Cong. Rec., 2nd Session, vol. 146, part 13, p. 19330 (“SPR was created”).

8. Bruce A. Beaubouef, The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: U. S. Energy Security and Oil Politics, 1975–2005 (College Station: Texas A& M University Press, 2007), ch. 5, epilogue.

9. The Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2003; Bassam Fattouhand Coby van der Linde, The International Energy Forum: Twenty Years of Consumer-Produce Country Dialogue in a Changing World (Riyadh: IEF, 2011), pp. 51, 61, 99–100; interviews.

10. Saudi Gazette, December 10, 2012; Financial Times, December 10, 2012; Reuters, December 9, 2012; The New York Times, October 23, 2012.

11. Leon Panetta, “Remarks on Cybersecurity,” Speech, October 11, 2012; Time Magazine, October 12, 2012.

12. North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the U. S. Department of Energy, High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System, June 2010, pp. 29–30. Dennis C. Blair, “Annual Threat Assessment of the U. S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” February 2, 2010 (“severely threatened”); The Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2011 (“bad new world”).

13. Joseph McClelland, Testimony Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U. S. Senate, May 5, 2011 (smart grid).

14. Cybersecurity Two Years Later: A Report of the CSIS Commission on Cybersecurity for the 44th Presidency (Washington, DC: CSIS, 2011), p. 1 (“steamboats”); Charles Ebinger and Kevin Massey, “Enhancing Smart Grid Cybersecurity in the Age of Information Warfare,” Brookings Energy Security Initiative, February 2011; Bruce Averill and Eric A. M. Luijf, “Canvassing the Cyber Security Landscape: Why Energy Companies Need to Pay Attention,” Journal of Energy Security, May 2010.

15. U. S. Energy Information Administration, “World Oil Transit Chokepoints,” EIA website.

16. Donna J. Nincic, “The ‘Radicalization’ of Maritime Piracy: Implications for Maritime Energy Security,” Journal of Energy Security, December 2010; Jane’s Navy International, September 28, 2010.

Глава 14. Зыбучие пески Персидского залива

1. R. W. Ferrier, The History of the British Petroleum Company, Vol. I, 1901–1932 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982), p. 161 (Albania); Mira Wilkins, The Maturing of Multinational Enterprise: American Business Abroad from 1914 to 1970 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1974), pp. 215–17 (“total loss”); Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Free Press, 1991), ch. 20 (“prize”) and chs. 24, 27, 29, Epilogue for the oil crisis.

2. Ali Al-Naimi, “Achieving Energy Stability in Uncertain Times,” speech, CERAWeek, February 10, 2010; Ali Al-Naimi, speech, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2, 2006.

3. Jane’s Intelligence Review, January 1, 2007 (legitimate target); Thomas Hegghammer, Jihad in Saudi Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), p. 215 (safe house).

4. Jane’s Intelligence Review, May 1, 2006; Financial Times, August 27, 2007; Peter Bergen and Bruce Hoffman, Assessing the Terrorist Threat: A Report of the Center’s National Security Preparedness Group, Bipartisan Policy Center, September 10, 2009; The National Interest, May 13, 2009 (economic warfare); Ali Al-Naimi, speech, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2, 2006.

5. HIS Jane’s, “The Siege of Tigantourine,” January 23, 2013; The Guardian, January 25, 2013; Time, February 11, 2013 (“did not predict”); “Al Qaeda Cenrtal control tightened over hostage operations,” The Long War Journal, January 17, 2013, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/01/analysis_al_qaeda_ce.php.

6. Washington Post, March 26, 2011.

7. United Nations Development Programme and Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Arab Human Development Report 2002 (New York: United Nations, 2002).

8. Navtej Dhillon and Tarik Yousef, eds., Generation in Waiting: The Unfulfilled Promise of Young People in the Middle East (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2009).

9. Clay Shirky, “The Political Power of Social Media,” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 1 (2011), pp. 28–41.

10. Marcus Noland and Howard Pack, The Arab Economies in a Changing World (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute, 2007), pp. 99–111.

11. David Hobbs and Daniel Yergin, “Fiscal Fitness: How Taxes at Home Help Determine Competitiveness Abroad,” IHS CERA, August 2010; interview with Lucian Pugliaresi.