Закат Америки. Уже скоро - Чарльз А. Капхен
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41
«Final Report of the Joint MDAP Survey Mission to Southeast Asia», December 6, 1950, ibid., p., 166.
42
Dulles, «Estimate of Situation», p. 162.
43
Francis Fukuyama, «The End of History?» National Interest, no. 16 (Summer 1989), p. 3—18; Francis Fukuyama, «The End of History and the Last Man» (New York: Free Press, 1992).
44
John J. Mearsheimer, «Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War», International Security, vol. 15, no. 1 (Summer 1990), p. 5—56; John J. Mearsheimer, «Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War», Atlantic Monthly, vol. 266, no. 2 (August 1990), p. 35–50.
45
Samuel P. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?» Foreign Affairs, vol. 72, no. 3 (Summer 1993); Samuel P. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order» (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996).
46
Matthew Connelly and Paul Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?» Atlantic Monthly, vol. 274, no. 6 (December 1994), p. 61–83. Кеннеди также высказал свой взгляд на складывающуюся международную систему в книге «Preparing for the Twenty-first Century» (New York: Random House, 1993).
47
Robert D. Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», Atlantic Monthly, vol. 273, no. 2 (February 1994), p. 44–76; Robert D. Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War» (New York: Random House, 2000).
48
Thomas L. Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree» (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1999).
49
Fukuyama, «The End of History?» p. 4.
50
Fukuyama, «The End of History and the LastMan», p. XVIII.
51
Из современных работ по демократическому миру см.: Michael W. Doyle, «Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs», Philosophy and Public Affairs, vol. 12, nos. 3 and 4 (Summer and Fall 1983), p. 205–235, p. 323–353; Bruce M. Russett, «Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post — Cold War World» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); «Debating the Democratic Peace», ed. Michael E. Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996); and «Paths to Peace: Is Democracy the Answer?» ed. Miriam Fendius Elman (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1997).
52
Fukuyama, «The End of History and the Last Man», p. XX.
53
Ibid., p. 276.
54
Fukuyama, «The End of History?» p. 18.
55
Francis Fukuyama, «SecondThoughts: The Last Man in a Bottle», National Interest, no. 56 (Summer 1999), p. 16–33.
56
Mearsheimer, «Back to the Future», p. 142. Хотя Миршеймер, составляя карту мира после «холодной войны», изначально рассматривал только Европу, впоследствии он включил в рассмотрение и Восточную Азию («The Tragedy of Great Power Politics», New York: Norton, 2001). Он придерживается точки зрения, сформулированной в ранних работах, и предсказывает постепенный вывод американских войск из Европы и Восточной Азии и возвращение в эти регионы геополитического соперничества. Прочие «реалисты», например, Кеннет Уолтц, также рассматривают экономический подъем Японии и Китая как предвестие геополитического соперничества в регионе. «Рано или поздно международный статус государств придет в соответствие с их материальными ресурсами».
57
Kenneth N. Waltz, «The Emerging Structure of International Politics», International Security, vol. 18, no. 2 (Fall 1993), p. 66. См. также Aaron L. Friedberg, «Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia», International Security, vol. 18, no. 3 (Winter 1993–1994), p. 5—33.
58
Mearsheimer, «Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War», p. 36.
59
Mearsheimer, «Back to the Future», p. 147.
60
Mearsheimer, «Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War», p. 35.
61
Ibid., p. 46.
62
Ibid.
63
Ibid., p. 40.
64
Ibid., p. 42.
65
Ibid., p. 50.
66
Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 24.
67
Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations and thej Remaking of World Order», p. 41–43.
68
Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 25.
69
Ibid., p. 31.
70
Ibid., p. 22.
71
Ibid., p. 29.
72
Ibid., p. 48.
73
Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order», p. 20
74
Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 49.
75
Paul M. Kennedy, «The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000» (New York: Random House, 1987); Robert D. Kaplan, «Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History» (New York: St. Martin's, 1993); and Robert D. Kaplan, «The Ends of the Earth: A Journey at the Dawn of the 21 st Century» (New York: Random House, 1996).
76
Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 62, 69,79.
77
Kennedy, «Preparing for the Twenty-first Century», p. 331.
78
Robert D. Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. xiii.
79
Ibid., p. 24.
80
Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 62.
81
Robert S. Chase, Emily B. Hill, and Paul Kennedy, «Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy», Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 1 (January — February 1996), p. 63.
82
Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. 7, 19.
83
Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 79.
84
Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. 120.
85
Ibid.
86
Ibid., p. 125.
87
Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree», p. 7–8.
88
Ibid., p. xviii.
89
Ibid., p. 201.
90
Ibid., p. 86.
91
См., for example, Robert O. Keohane, «After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984).
92
См., for example, Thomas Risse-Kappen, «Cooperation Among Democracies: The European Influence on U. S. Foreign Policy» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997).
93
Joseph S. Nye, Jr., «Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power» (New York: Basic Books, 1990).
94
Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree», p. 196–198.
95
Ibid., p. 41.
96
Ibid.
97
Ibid., p. 212.
98
Thomas Friedman, «World War III», New York Times, September 13, 2001. Rankings based on market capitalization as of March 28, 2002, Financial Times Global 500 Guide, May 8, 2002.
99
Available at: http://specials.ft.com/spdocs/FT3BNS7BW0D.pdf
100
Jane Perlez, «With Time Short, Albright Stays Aloft», New York Times, July 3, 2000.
101
World Bank, China 2020: Development Challenges in the New Century (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1997), p. 103.
102
Senate Resolution 208, November 8, 1999.
103
Henry Kissinger, «U.S. Intervention in Kosovo Is a Mistake», Boston Globe, March 1,1999.
104
Cited in Edmund Andrews, «Bush Angers Europe by Eroding Pact on Warming», New York Times, April 1, 2001.
105
David Sanger, «Bush Flatly States U.S. Will Pull Out of Missile Treaty», New York Times, August 24, 2001.
106
Dana Milbank, «Bush Advocates a Wider NATO», Washington Post, June 16, 2001.
107
«Bush Unpopular in Europe, Seen as Unilateralist», August 15, 2001. Available at: http://people-press.org/reports/displayюphp3?ReportID=5 Survey conducted by the International Herald Tribune, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. См. также Adam Clymer, «Surveys Find European Public Critical of Bush Policies», New York Times, August 16, 2001.
108
JohnKifner, «56IslamicNationsAvoidCondemningU.S. Attacks, but Warn on Civilian Casualties», New York Times, October 11,2001.
109
Laurie Goodstein, «Muslim Scholars Back Fight Against Terrorists», New York Times, October 12, 2001.
110
См. Stephen M. Walt, «The Origins of Alliances» (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987).
111
President Calvin Coolidge, State of the Union Address, December 4, 1928, a; cited in John Kenneth Galbraith, «The Great Crash, 1929» (New York: Time Inc., 1961), p. 7.
112
Ibid., p. 26–27, 70.
113
Cited ibid., p. 38.
114
Cited ibid., p. 73.
115
Cited ibid., p. 74.
116
Ibid., p. 80.
117
Piers Brendon, «The Dark Valley: A Panorama of the 1930s» (New York: Knopf, 2000), p. 86.
118
Charles P. Kindleberger, «The World in Depression, 1929–1939» (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1973), p. 171–172.
119
Dietmar Rothermund, «The Global Impact of the Great Depression, 1929–1939» (London: Routledge, 1996), p. 55.
120
Cited in Brendon, «The Dark Valley», p. 31.
121
Cited inTatsuji Takeuchia, «War and Diplomacy in the Japanese Empire» (New York: Doubleday, 1935), p. 353.
122
Kindleberger, «The World in Depression», p. 308.
123
Galbraith, «The Great Crash», p. 173–174.
124
Thomas L. Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree» (New York: Farrar, Strai & Giroux, 1999), p. 7.
125
Ibid., p. 7–8.
126
Thomas Paine, «Rights of Man», in Collected Writings (New York: Literal Classics of the United States, 1995), p. 598–599.
127
John Stuart Mill, «Principles of Political Economy: With Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy» (Fairfield, N.J.: Augustus M. Kelley Publishers, 1976), p. 582.
128
